Complex Adaptive Systems

Shotei "Shinagawa"

Complex Adaptive Systems

Rose CDC – Complex Adaptive Systems Research for Community Economic Development

In recent years, the use of new mathematical modeling tools from complex adaptive systems research, particularly those known under the rubric of "New Growth Theory", an offshoot of rational choice theory and neo-institutionalism which employs chaos and complexity theory has generated the ability to model, plan and implement economic development in new, more precise and often more productive ways.

The Rose CDC model builds from a proprietary research paradigm developed by Dr. Philip V. Fellman and Dr. Roxana Wright where we employ a rigorous mathematical approach to screening, targeting and developing various industries and their parallel institutions and institutional relationships in Indian Country. The foundational work for this methodology was developed by Dr. Wright in her extensive work on the development of post-socialist Central and Eastern Europe (New England Complex Systems Institute, John Wiley and Sons, etc.)

At the heart of this approach is a mathematical treatment which looks at specific industries, transition mechanisms to higher added-value and the role of institutions in a context of hysterisis or historical path dependence. This formula provides a unique model for integrating institutional context with entrepreneurship and community economic development. In its briefest form, the model explains these phenomena by measuring initial conditions, internal factors determining transition (development) paths and external forces (primarily institutional influences). The formal statement is:

is a vector of economic and institutional features (1 to N) at time n (after n iterations).
{q} is a sequence of functions mapping features into probabilities of improvement towards market at time n.variable1is the vector of initial conditions.

Improvements towards market follow the dynamics:

variable2represents the vector of economic and institutional features characterizing the EU variable3is a factor determining the rate of convergence towards western features of market economy(WE); could be expressed as an exponential function equation5where c is a convergence factor.

This methodology provides us with a powerful, ongoing scientific research mechanism as we examine, screen and enter new markets, enterprises and interact with existing businesses and institutions in Indian Country. At present, we are the first community development enterprise in Indian Country to employ this type of ongoing research paradigm and to have developed this type of proprietary search and evaluation methodology for Native American economic development.